An interesting tactic seems to be emerging from Oscar Arias' dogged efforts to resolve Honduras' democratic, um, impasse. The Costa Rican president announced today that he will begin negotiations with at least four of the six candidates in Honduras' rapidly approaching November elections, each of whom to this point have supported ousted president Manuel Zelaya's ejection from power.  Chief among the agenda items Arias plans to hammer home to these presidential hopefuls is the fact that just about the entirety of the Americas, not to mention a slew of countries in Europe and beyond, will not recognize the results if the country's ousted and democratically elected president Zelaya is not returned to office beforehand.

Arias' decision to quit wasting the bulk of his time trying to rationalize with the de facto head of state Roberto Micheletti - not to mention attempting to control the antics of Zelaya as he rapidly depletes remaining reserves of international goodwill following the coup - opens up some new doors of possibility. 

In the first place, it sends the Micheletti gang a clear message that their use-by date is approaching expiration, and that the community of states Arias represents has essentially moved on from worrying about them.   This is not to suggest that Arias plans to disengage from his discussions with Micheletti, but merely to point out that he will signal clearly that Honduras' neighbors no longer consider the de facto government there to be in sole possession of the negotiating chips on that side of the bargaining table, and that a new set of actors is increasingly of greater import.  In essence, Arias will strip Micheletti of any legitimacy he derives from his illegitimacy.

Secondly, an perhaps more interestingly, Arias' move could very well drive a wedge between the current powers that be, ultimately resulting in Zelaya's return to power...however briefly.  Arias will essentially warn the candidates that successful election in the November contest could very well be their professional undoing.  Without recognition from traditional allies both close and far, the next government of Honduras will get next to nothing done, and the socioeconomic situation in the country will almost certainly grow worse.  No political candidate worth his or her salt wants to inherit the possibility of that mess.  My guess is that Arias is banking on the possibility that the candidates' self-interest will lead them either individually or collectively to pressure Micheletti to compromise, and allow for Zelaya's return.    

Of course, this latest move could backfire entirely if the candidates remain firm in their rejection of Zelaya and support for the Micheletti regime.  But then that simply would reinforce the widely-held perception that Honduras' ruling elites really could care less about representing the best interests of their increasingly vulnerable public, is incapable of acting intelligently, and are just exercising power for its own sake, democracy be damned.

More on this as it develops...