About six weeks ago, I argued that resolution of the Honduran crisis would depend in large part on the actions of leading candidates in the country's presidential election slated for later this month. At the time, international super-negotiator Oscar Arias began strong-arming the candidates to back his peace proposal which they largely did.  It seemed to me then as it continues to now that the presidential hopefuls would find it in their best interest to bring Zelaya back sp to avoid inheriting international bad will and pariah status that accompanied the coup. 

The deal reached this past week between negotiators representing Manuel Zelaya and the de facto ruler of Honduras, Roberto Micheletti -- an accord which would return Zelaya to power, albeit briefly -- has been credited to US diplomats who arrived in the country earlier in the week.  Leading the charge, Thomas Shannon-whose nomination to be US ambassador to Brazil is still being held up in the American Congress by spoilsport conservatives-arrived in Tegulcigalpa and immediately pressed all sides to reach a compromise solution before this coming Thursday. Even Hillary Clinton took time out from her overseas trip to Central Asia to call Micheletti personally hammering home the US position just in case.  The New York Times reports that "Micheletti later joked with his aides that she stuck so close to her message it appeared she had a limited vocabulary.  'I kept trying to explain our position to her,' he said, but all she kept saying was, 'Restitution, restitution, restitution.''"

But the settlement must next be approved by the Honduran national congress in order to take effect, approval that will likely be led by the presidential candidates who sit in the assembly.  At the center of attention is Porfirio Lobo, the leading candidate and odds on favorite to win the November 29 elections.  Lobo, who heads the National Party -- which holds a majority in the Congress -- will likely be the focal point of Congress' decision on Zelaya's, and the country's, future. 

There has been some suggestion that Congress will not be forthcoming with ratification. Before the assembly votes on the settlement, the country's Supreme Court will issue a non-binding opinion on the accord's constitutionality.   According to Reuters, a handful of conservative lawmakers of the National Party have suggested that they'll cast their vote according to the recommendation of the Court "which is expected to maintain its stance that restoring Zelaya would be unconstitutional."

But this seems unlikely. Various media are reporting that Lobo has already signaled a firm commitment to his pro-Zelaya confederates that his party will support the power-sharing deal agreed to this week.  Marvin Ponce, a staunch supporter of Zelaya, told Reuters that "What [Lobo] has told us in private is that he will call on his party to support this accord."  Lobo's handlers have denied Ponce's assertion, but political observers have testified to its veracity. 

In all likelihood, the Congress will bring the issue in front of lawmakers on Tuesday for a vote, and Zelaya will come out from hiding in the Brazilian embassy to resume the duties of the presidency by Thursday.  In addition to Zelaya's reinstatement into government, the brokered deal outlines other stipulations that will help Honduras recover from its recent ugly return to the politics of a bygone era.  Among other issues, the deal: eliminates the possibility of amnesty for anyone involved in the lead-up to Zelaya's ejection from power; forcs Zelaya to drop his objectives of rewriting the Honduran constitution; secures international recognition of the election results; and establishes a "truth commission" to investigate charges of human rights abuses leveled against all sides in the power struggle.

While the accord is welcome relief for a country under siege and the international diplomats who have up to now been banging their heads against the wall of Micheletti and Zelaya's stubbornness, the specific provisions leave open a number of questions.  Chief among them, to what degree will Honduras be able to escape from the underlying troubles that sparked the coup in the first place?  With both sides stripped of the possibility of immunity for past actions, will we witness tit-for-tat prosecutions of Micheletti and Zelaya both following the elections?  And if so, will the country find the fortitude to withstand another round of highly polarized-and state threatening-political infighting?