Hello all, after a short hiatus.

My series in state building as security oriented development has not been abandoned, but merely kept behind due to fine tuning. Here though is addendum on my previous posts on the displaced population in Pakistan. If you go back in time, in fact, only 5-6 months ago, you would recall that the displacement of three million Pakistanis considered largest since Pakistan's independence, and the biggest since WWII was not doing so well on account of lack of funds, and government's ill preparedness to plan ahead for the needs of displaced population.

Now consider separate but linked points :

one: Almost 85 percent of the displaced population headed back to their villages in the districts of Swat, Buner, Dir and Shangla.This has been deemed as the government's success in handling the IDP crisis, as the return of the displaced population reflects that the conditions were conducive to peaceful existence in the conflict ridden areas. Indeed, it would seem that way, as three quarters of the population going back to their areas would not have materialized had the conditions not been conducive to peace.

two: Of the displaced population, three fourth of the people stayed with their relatives or friends, and only a quarter resorted to living in government provided camps. I dont know how to interpret this fact without any cause-effect understanding, or survey of those who chose to live with their relatives rather than government camps. All I can point out at this point is that the same pattern is replicating now, in the fresh wave of displaced people who have left their homes from the Khyber valley due to the military operation there.

three: Of those who returned in July-August 2009, accounts of life in their villages after return seem to be sketchy. Our attention spans are but too short. This is what I gathered from a quick survey: landmines and other unexploded remnants are present, military operation is still going on in some parts, even though civilians have returned, and conditions are not conducive to safety and peace.The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan noted,

"The IDPs have returned to find a number of houses in the area damaged in the military operation. Shops in most areas are yet to reopen and the ones that are open have scare supplies. The local people demand that the government ensure the supply of essentials to the returning population, including subsidised edibles for the families that cannot afford to buy them on account of financial losses suffered during and prior to the military operation. Restoration of the devastated infrastructure and provision of safe drinking water must be given top priority to prevent the spread of disease...While a massive security operation in Swat seems to have dented the Taliban network in the area for now, but the threat of Taliban exists. Lack of safety and security remain for the people being sent back to the valley from IDP camps. That the law and order situation is still not completely under control is testified by the continued curfew in the area. Even military officials in the area acknowledge that parts of Swat are yet to be purged of the militants. The beheading of a police official in Sangota, Mingora, on July 28 triggered fear among local residents, who had returned to their homes after being assured that the militants have been flushed out of the area....None of the national and provincial assembly members or district or tehsil nazims have so far returned to the conflict-hit area. Their absence itself is a reflection of the apprehension of lack of security in the region."

four: how does this portend for the wave of newly displaced 56,000 to 100, 000 people from Khyber valley, a major supply route for US and NATO troops in Afghanistan? They have followed the same pattern of seeking shelter with friends and relatives, while the poorest have sought refuge in government's camps. Add to this the fact that according to UN Humanitarian Coordinator in Pakistan, "only 3 percent of the US$280 million" required for the early recovery plan for IDPs has so far been collected.

five: throw in the fact that Pakistan is still hosting 1.7 million Afghan refugees.

six: Despite return to Swat, people, especially women are scared to venture out of their houses, due to fear of Taliban militants. Of the data gathered on IDPs, it was discovered that 12.2 percent of all registered are female heads of households. According to World Food Programme though, only 10.4 to 11.3 percent of monthly food distribution goes to women, suggesting that a disproportionate number of female-headed households are not receiving their food entitlements each month.

It is counter productive and facile to just point fingers here. However, it seems to me that the following could be a series of questions that need to be addressed to: will the international community step up to send in promised funds to help the displaced? If not, how will the government with its economic problems deal with the issue? Does the lack of funds also reflect on the government's lack of capacity to absorb funds? or in other words, does it reflect doubt on the government's ability to execute aid effectively? Will the return of three quarters of displaced population outweigh the plight and issues of those who did not return? How many people are actually in the camps right now, and what is the game plan for them in case they do not go back? Will the civilian part of the government please stand up? From accounts of aid distribution, it appeared that the military was overseeing all the efforts. There are talks of establishing a garrison in Swat, and these are all good things, but where are the elected representatives of the people? How does this reflect on the state-society equation? Too many questions, and most of them are easy to dismiss as 'what'if' questions, amidst a maelstrom of issues more burning than IDPs facing Pakistan today. However, we should remember, Taliban emerged from the refugee camps set up in outskirts of cities in Pakistan. They really started as impoverished and neglected children of lesser Gods, with no voices. Now we hear them loud and clear.

*(flickr image by Scott Christian)