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nazia hussain

Random musings on nation building and defense strategies

By nazia hussain - 11 months ago

 

No I am not a broken record. Seriously. I just get distracted and jaded, time and again. Who wouldn't though, with all the talk on armed nation building in Afghanistan? Foreign Policy launched a channel on Af-Pak today, there is an interesting debate going on at the Abu Muqawama blog at Centre for New American Security sparked by Prof.Bacevich's poke at 'people centric idea of security'. There is also a great post under the category of Afghan Mission Creep Watch by Michael Cohen that mentions other useful links on the same.

The new head of British army has also weighed in with the assurance(?)/declaration that British involvement in Afghanistan could last for up to 40 years and that it is nothing short of nation building. He said,

'It will take time. This is nation-building - not the starry-eyed type, but nation-building nonetheless. It is not just reconstruction; jobs and simple governance that works are key, and there has to be a strong reconciliation element to the latter. The Army's role will evolve, but the whole process might take as long as 30 to 40 years. There is absolutely no chance of NATO pulling out.'

David Miliband has also elaborated on something along the same lines in a speech at NATO headquarters,

'We will not force the Taliban to surrender just through force of arms and overwhelming might. Nor will we convert them to our point of view through force of argument and ideological conviction.  But by challenging the insurgency, by dividing the different groups, by convincing the Afghans that we will not desert them to Taliban retribution, and by building legitimate governance especially at local level with the grain of Afghan society, the Afghan government, with our support, can prevail.'

It's really old news and yet viewed as new. This is what the new defense doctrines that encompass security, defense and diplomacy have been outlining for some time now. There are no new twists here, call it neo imperialism, human security oriented defense strategies or security-tinged development strategies. This is happening. And most likely not going to change at least in the very near future.

Now I am only a lowly student shooting whatever comes in my lowly head. For example, how will the donor western governments foot the bills of 30-40 year long engagements in Afghanistan? What happens when donor fatigue sets in? With the level of engagement in the national affairs, from building a well, to helping build in local governance, will the donor governments dictate political landscape of Afghanistan arbitrarily, thereby alienating the very people they wish to win? With the amounts of money pouring in, who will the government be accountable to? the western ATMs or the local people who elected them? I think some of these questions have been partially answered by events in the past few years already.

Will it also entail some action in the badlands of Pakistani border areas that by definition are equally lawless, and hosting Taliban/Al-Qaeda operatives? Is Pakistan going to be the extended front in the armed nation building strategy, at least the area bordering Afghanistan? To what extent will the Pakistan army (really calling the shots) put up with the donor involvement in the badlands of tribal areas?

Furthermore, will democracy be weakened in Pakistan, paradoxically, when the 'national interests' as envisioned by the army will force the civilian government to follow policies that entrench security dominant paradigms of governance instead of focusing on development (and by that I mean not just development in the tribal badlands, but other parts of the country also)?

There seem to be no clear cut answers, or atleast honest answers. Hence, since there appear to be slim chances of review of the current defense strategies, my next stop is analyzing the nuts and bolts of these security-development linkages, and possibly evaluations of case studies. Until then.

 

 

 

 

 

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5 Comments

 
Michael Middleton Michael Middleton - 11 months ago

Hi Nazia, interesting post. You are right to point out that there is nothing "new" in the most recent NATO statements, rather just a re-enforcement of their commitment to the Afghan conflict. You pose an interesting question at the end about the impacts of security agendas upon democracy within the region. I am interested to hear your thoughts on the relationship between security and democracy within the nation building process. On the one hand some argue that democratization is an essential part of winning the "hearts and minds" of the local populous; and therefore an essential part of establishing security. On the other hand, others argue that trying to establish a democracy (in the western sense) without having first created a basic level of security is self-defeating because a democracy cannot function properly in an insecure environment and is ultimately de-legitimized for failing to protect its people.

So what do you think....

a) Democracy first, security second
b) Security first, democracy second
c) Both at the same time
d) Other


 
nazia hussain nazia hussain - 11 months ago

Thanks for your comment and question Mike. To be honest, I have no definitve answers, and writing back a smart worded answer would be shortchanging. I would hope that the post sparks alternative ideas/thoughts. However, I think the linkages between security and democracy lead us to possibly the basic premise: what kind of state do we envision? a development oriented/welfare paradigm of state or security dominant paradigm of  state? Because, deciding what comes first, entertaining the notion of what constitutes national interest vis-a-vis security over everything else, or relegating dominance to development/human development over security concerns might simplify things a bit. This would hold though in the case of a functioning state. So for example, in the case of Pakistan, maybe policymakers might ask if they should spend more on defence/ create strategic depth or spend on the human resources, the people.

 


 
nazia hussain nazia hussain - 11 months ago

In the case of a territory tring to reclaim its sovereignty, securing peace would be the foremost thing. So as you ask what comes first, security or democracy,I would think definitely security. But then what constitutes a strong state? not just security, but also the perception of a state that can take care of its citizens. Democracy offers the political elite a chance to not just institute governance but also to build links with the electorate. I would think that both aspects are equally important then, and mutually reinforcing.

Whats more, I think there cannot be a blanket response or some fixed notion of what comes first, as each country represents its own unique history, power dynamics and socio-political landscape. Furthermore, I think there is need to study this whole argument from the perspective of the fragile states, as political elites there jockey for influence, try to maintain old patterns of power/prestige while negotiating for 'change' from donors. That might, in my opinion, lead to a better understanding.


 
Matthew Bondy Matthew Bondy - 11 months ago

Nazia,

Very interesting post. Certainly displays a subtelty and nuance in your thinking. Mike poses an interesting question as to which comes first. If I could be so bold, I would offer an answer: C

If Nazia's right, and the operative logic in Afghanistan is one of humanitarian imperialism, that's the kind of thing that can't be siloed. Afghanistan requires a robust counter-insurgency efforts along with a comprehensive attempt to reform local governance. In a place like Afghanistan, you can't churn out a liberal democracy all that quickly, I shouldn't think.

As well, all this stuff about empowering local populations to govern themselves effectively is surely nothing new, as Nazia says. Imperial powers have been doing it for centures: quelling insurgencies, dividing the 'reconcilables' from the 'irreconcilables', etc.

But it must be nearly self-evident that security and governance (I'd use this word instead of 'democracy') go hand in hand, because they are mutually reinforcing. Your point, Mike, that an unprepared democracy is delegitimised if it can't protect its citizens is a good one. But what's more on the line at this stage is the credibility not of the Afghan government - at least in terms of defeating the insurgency - but that of the 'imperial' powers: the US, UK, even Canada and Nato. Afghanistan remains a fairly martially-centred society, given the ongoing insurgency, and so it's not so much Afghan credibility as western military and political credibility that's on the line.

Thoughts?

Keep up the good work, Nazia!


 
nazia hussain nazia hussain - 11 months ago

Thanks Matt. You are right in stating that the credibility of all the countries involved in Afghan situation is at stake. My point was that this whole new debate on people friendly armed defence is not new, this has been in theory for some time now, with the whole focus on whole of government approaches, human security etc. I have not taken any side as yet in claiming that it is humanitarian imperialism, as I think its very easy to label and harder to find solutions. Who knows though, if the whole enterprise falls through, I would end up among the cynics. I am skeptical though of the scale of efforts and the concepts of state building being at the heart of the whole action.


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