It will be interesting to see how strongly (and overtly) Western oil dependent states are willing to push for democratic reform.  Pushing too hard, only to have Bongo’s son assume control, could be dangerous.  What do you think?

Hi Mike,

Thanks for your comment.  It`s an interesting question.  From what I`ve read, the real "Western" country to watch is France.  There are longstanding military and economic ties between the two countries, and as the ex-colonial power, France has always had considerable influence in who becomes a power-broker in Gabon.  But France, who's reputation in Africa has largely been tarnished by its role in the Rwandan genocide, has promised a new kind of politics toward the African continent.  It`s probably too early to tell whether that pledge is genuine. 

In other news, it appears that the Gabonese elections may be delayed to "enable an updating of the voters list".  Something tells me that the voters list wasn`t relied upon too heavily during Mr. Bongo's presidency.....

Brian,

Good post and good response to Mike. It'll be interesting to see how France's role in this emerges. I've always found France's conspicuous political interests in its (former... for the most part) colonies very interesting. They're always getting their hands dirty.

What constructive role can the international community play here besides election monitoring and advice? Are there any robust programmes in place to assist in the consolidation of democratic practices in places like Gabon?

Best,

M

Hi Matt,

It`s a good question.  Certainly, the biggest danger would be for the international community to be seen as meddling in the election campaign of a sovereign state.  It`s important that the international community not be seen as supporting one of the reform candidates, lest it give Mr. Bongo's camp the ability to claim western interference. 

At this stage I think it is most important for the international community to pressure Gabon to delay that election until the voters list is updated.  The voters list in Gabon is terribly incomplete, and if the election was held within a month, as the constitution requires, the result would not accurately reflect the will of the people.  Along with supporting an update of the voters list, I think that the international community can support non-governmental organizations who have an interest in making sure that the election is conducted freely and fairly.  Election-monitoring is an important element of that.

Hi Brian,

I think you are right to point out the importance of election-monitoring.  One need only look to the current instability in Iran to see the effects that any percieved electioral illegitimacy can have.